Labor ignored its falling vote in the working-class western suburbs because they would never go Liberal – but now there’s another option
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It’s nearing 3pm outside Beirut Bakehouse, a Lebanese bakery tucked inside a shopping plaza in Taylors Lakes, 20km north-west of Melbourne. A group of men are out the front nursing coffees and smoking cigarettes, in what appears to be a regular gathering.
But despite their closeness, three of the group will be casting their votes for three different political parties in next month’s state election.
Brian, a retired businessman, is leaning Liberal. Ivan says he’s going to give One Nation a go. Antonio, a lifelong Labor voter, is sticking with the party – though he understands why others aren’t.
Scare campaigns: Victoria’s major parties trade blows over AI-generated videos of leaders in election adsRead more“They’re all working class here and that’s basically what Labor is,” Antonio says.
The men are enrolled in Sydenham – one of several Labor seats in Melbourne’s north-west that were once considered a stronghold. In 2022, Labor’s primary vote in the seat fell by 17.8%, while its two-party-preferred vote dropped below 60% for the first time in three decades. The sitting MP, Natalie Hutchins, is retiring and her successor, Uros Rasic, has been campaigning since December. The party has been pouring in resources to defend its territory.
In neighbouring St Albans, Labor’s Natalie Suleyman’s primary vote fell by 18.4% at the last election. Farther north in Greenvale, there was a swing of almost 15% against Labor on a two-party preferred basis. In Yan Yean it was 11.3%. There are also fears for Victorian premier Ben Carroll’s seat of Niddrie, closer to the city.
These seats are among the most diverse in the state, and predominately working-to-middle class. Most households are paying off mortgages – meaning they’re exposed to rising interest rates.
View image in fullscreenBrian, left, a retired businessman, is leaning Liberal. The men are enrolled in Sydenham – one of several seats once considered a Labor stronghold. Photograph: Bertin Huynh/The GuardianBefore the 2022 election, Kos Samaras, a former Labor strategist turned pollster with Redbridge, warned this block of seats would swing away from the government in the wake of the Covid lockdowns. What has surprised him is how little Labor has done since to win these voters back.
“They clearly ignored it. They banked it, they thought that ‘it doesn’t matter how much we absorb out there, it doesn’t go to the Liberal party’. They just didn’t factor in that One Nation will be around to provide these people a home. So now here we are,” Samaras says.
“Is it going to result in lost seats? We’ll have to wait and see but I would not want to be in their shoes.”
14:06Victoria election 2026: could Labor's loyal heartland flip to One Nation?Shopfront politics
Almost every storefront on Alfrieda Street in St Albans carries posters for one or even all four of the main candidates: Labor’s Natalie Suleyman, Liberal Rob Dunstan, One Nation’s John Cowell and Luan Walker of the West party. There are even a few posters for the Victorian Socialists but no visible Greens presence.
Jenny, who owns an Asian grocery store and has lived in the area for 20 years, has all four. She says her main concern this election is cost of living, as her business has suffered as customers cut back.
“The interest [rates are] too high for the customer, so they try to save money on fruit and veg,” she says.
Map of Labor’s first preference vote in seats in Melbourne’s west.She backs the sitting MP, Suleyman, to win, pointing to her visibility in the community.
“I don’t see them often,” she says of the other candidates whose faces fill her windows.
Several other traders say Suleyman, a former local mayor, has been responsive to their concerns, particularly around illegal trading on the strip, of everything from home-cooked meals to stolen meat and cosmetics.
Andy Nguyen, vice-president of the St Albans Asian Business Association, is campaigning heavily for Labor and says another party winning the seat will “never happen”. Suleyman gets back to him in “five minutes” when he raises his concerns, he says – or 10 minutes if she’s busy.
“That’s why my community, [the] Vietnamese community, support her.”
But others are more skeptical. Locals raise crime and drug use as high among their concerns. As students take their year 12 exams in the St Albans community centre, plastic baggies and syringes are littered across Errington Reserve.
View image in fullscreenPosters in St Albans of candidates (from left): One Nation’s John Cowell; Liberal Rob Dunstan; and Labor’s Natalie Suleyman. Photograph: Bertin Huynh/The GuardianTJ, a YouTuber who grew up in St Albans, says drug use is a “massive” problem in the area. “I’m not here to dis my home town but this is the reality.”
Another local, Sam, is most concerned about the firebombing of local storefronts as a result of the illicit tobacco trade. He is supportive of commitments from both One Nation and the Liberal party at a federal level to cut cigarette taxes in a bid to minimise the illegal trade – a commitment that has no bearing on state laws.
Shyam Padala, who lives in Melton, says the western suburbs have been “completely forgotten by Labor”, pointing to their promises to build a Melton hospital and electrify the train line – made in 2018 and then again in 2022 – which still haven’t eventuated.
He says it’s “cheating the ordinary middle class” to encourage people to move to the area on the promise better infrastructure, only to leave them waiting. The hospital, in particular, has become a running joke.
“It will never come. When we die it will come,” Padala says.
A ‘fresh face’
But could electorates such as St Albans – where almost two-thirds of the population have parents born overseas – turn to a party such as One Nation?
TJ remembers the anti-Asian rhetoric of the 1990s, when Pauline Hanson first rose to prominence, but says the perception of her has since shifted.
Muslim Votes Matter softens anti-Labor stance ahead of Victorian election in bid to defeat One Nation in at-risk seatsRead more“Back then they looked at her as super-racist, but now they’re looking [at her] as a saviour. So it’s changed completely,” he says.
TJ says he’s not particularly political and is quick to acknowledge Labor’s achievements in the area – from the level crossing removals on the Sunbury line to the Joan Kirner Women’s and Children’s hospital. But he says as costs increase, it’s not enough.
“People are digging deeper into their pockets and they’ve got nothing left,” he says.
“They want change drastically and they don’t want the Liberals or Labor. They want a fresh face.