In brief: A Melania Trump-brokered ceasefire around Oleshky allowed Russian forces to rotate troops and move ammunition, weapons and vehicles, Ukraine alleged. Sky News footage and Russian milbloggers appeared to corroborate the accusations.
A rare ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine War gave cover for Russian troops to reinforce and rearm forward positions without fear of Ukrainian drone strikes, according to news reports and official sources on Tuesday.
The purported Russian violation of terms began on Oct. 27 during a ceasefire brokered by US First Lady Melania Trump between Ukraine and Russia to stop combat activities and hold all forces in place around the southern Ukrainian town Oleshky, allowing some 800 civilians to be evacuated from the city.
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On Monday, Nov. 2 Ukraine’s General Staff issued a statement saying that during the ceasefire, Russian forces pulled troops from forward positions and replaced them with fresh soldiers, food, and ammunition. Kremlin spokesman Dmitriy Peskov, in comment to Moscow reporters, denied the Kyiv accusation and suggested it was Ukrainian troops that had violated ceasefire terms.
At the outset of the ceasefire, US officials said the operation was successful and praised the Trump administration for engineering it.“Congratulations to First Lady Melania Trump on this important achievement! Her efforts to secure a ceasefire and facilitate humanitarian aid demonstrate the power of diplomacy and leadership. This is a meaningful step toward peace bringing hope to civilians, and creating an opportunity for progress. Under President Trump’s leadership, we remain committed to advancing peace, stability, and security,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote on X.
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British Sky News, reporting on Tuesday from the headquarters of the nearby Ukrainian 34th Marine Brigade, published a video that appeared to undermine the White House narrative of a well-executed ceasefire and supported Ukrainian military claims of substantial Russian violations. Drone-recorded footage showed buses and military vehicles moving north from Oleshky toward Ukrainian lines while the ceasefire was still in effect, and the report said Russian forces were visibly violating the terms of the truce.
“The most dangerous aspect [of the ceasefire violation] is that Russian forces managed to bring in a very large number of personnel,” said Yaroslav Mantyar, commander of the 34th Brigade drone unit “Borysfen” in a Tuesday Radio Liberty interview. “Russian forces also brought in ammunition, various types of weaponry, and [unmanned aerial vehicles] UAVs, and regrouped their forces.”Dmytro Lubynets, Ukraine’s Parliamentary Commissioner for Human Rights monitoring the ceasefire, suggested that the video may have been misleading because the Russian vehicles spotted by the 34th Marine Brigade drones were military equipment used exclusively for demining, rather than transporting Russian troops.
On Tuesday, Vladimir Romanov, author of the highly popular pro-Russia military blog Romanov_Lite, indirectly confirmed Ukrainian charges in a field report. According to Censor.Net, four busloads of civilians had successfully exited Oleshky, while fourteen loaded with supplies and men had driven towards Oleshky in the opposite direction.
Pro-Russia milbloggers reported the SkyNews footage and, citing Russian troops deployed in the sector, said that the ceasefire had been successfully used as cover for troop movements.
“Our gangsters used the ceasefire at Oleshky to move troops, armored vehicles and munitions, fuel and to rotate our troops. Everything is outstanding!” reported Russia-based blogger DontStopWar in a post on Wednesday. A geo-located video posted to 250,000+ followers showed automobiles and armored vehicles moving along a road connecting the isolated town to Russian lines.
Terrain in the Oleshky sector is relatively flat and wide open, offering little cover for troops moving by vehicle or even on foot without being spotted by drones. Frontline soldiers on both sides stay mostly underground and attempt surface movement to or from the front lines during bad weather or at dawn or dusk, when observation by drone is most difficult. Troops consider movement even more dangerous during cold months starting in mid-October due to limited foliage on trees and bushes.
The independent US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in an Oct. 29 situation estimate predicted that Russian forces might take advantage of the ceasefire by moving troops and equipment while Ukrainian drones were under orders not to attack them.
Stefan Korshak is the Kyiv Post Senior Defense Correspondent. He is from Houston Texas, is a Yalie and since the mid-1990s has worked as correspondent/photographer for newswire, newspapers, television and radio. He has reported from five wars but most enjoys doing articles on wildlife and nature. You can read his weekly blog on the Russo-Ukraine War on Facebook, Substack and Medium. His new book on the 2022 Siege of Mariupol is available on Amazon UK and Amazon US.
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